Simple Linear Regression in Economics
Economists often seek to understand how one variable changes in response to another. Simple linear regression is a fundamental tool for modeling such relationships. For instance, Okun's Law describes a negative relationship between GDP growth and unemployment: when the economy grows faster, unemployment tends to fall. By fitting a regression model, you can quantify this relationship, making it possible to predict changes in unemployment based on changes in GDP growth.
1234567891011# Create example economic data econ_data <- data.frame( gdp_growth = c(2.5, 1.8, 3.0, 2.2, 0.5, -0.3, 1.2, 2.8), unemployment = c(6.5, 6.9, 6.1, 6.4, 7.2, 7.8, 7.0, 6.3) ) # Fit a simple linear regression: unemployment as a function of gdp_growth model <- lm(unemployment ~ gdp_growth, data = econ_data) # View the regression summary summary(model)
The regression output provides key information for economic interpretation. The coefficients table shows the intercept and the slope; the slope tells you how much unemployment is expected to change for a one-unit increase in gdp_growth. In the context of Okun's Law, a negative slope confirms that higher gdp_growth is associated with lower unemployment. The R-squared value indicates the proportion of variation in unemployment explained by gdp_growth — a higher R-squared means a better model fit. By interpreting the slope, you can translate statistical results into meaningful economic insights, such as estimating the impact of economic growth on labor markets.
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Economists often seek to understand how one variable changes in response to another. Simple linear regression is a fundamental tool for modeling such relationships. For instance, Okun's Law describes a negative relationship between GDP growth and unemployment: when the economy grows faster, unemployment tends to fall. By fitting a regression model, you can quantify this relationship, making it possible to predict changes in unemployment based on changes in GDP growth.
1234567891011# Create example economic data econ_data <- data.frame( gdp_growth = c(2.5, 1.8, 3.0, 2.2, 0.5, -0.3, 1.2, 2.8), unemployment = c(6.5, 6.9, 6.1, 6.4, 7.2, 7.8, 7.0, 6.3) ) # Fit a simple linear regression: unemployment as a function of gdp_growth model <- lm(unemployment ~ gdp_growth, data = econ_data) # View the regression summary summary(model)
The regression output provides key information for economic interpretation. The coefficients table shows the intercept and the slope; the slope tells you how much unemployment is expected to change for a one-unit increase in gdp_growth. In the context of Okun's Law, a negative slope confirms that higher gdp_growth is associated with lower unemployment. The R-squared value indicates the proportion of variation in unemployment explained by gdp_growth — a higher R-squared means a better model fit. By interpreting the slope, you can translate statistical results into meaningful economic insights, such as estimating the impact of economic growth on labor markets.
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