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Learn DCF Money Printing Machine Example | Understanding Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Mastering Discounted Cash Flow Analysis with Excel

bookDCF Money Printing Machine Example

Imagine a business (the machine) that produces predictable cash flows: $50,000 per year for five years. A naΓ―ve approach might value the machine at $250,000 ($50K Γ— 5). But this ignores a foundational principle in finance: money today is more valuable than money tomorrow.

The time value of money (TVM) tells us that each future $50,000 payment must be adjusted (discounted) based on how far in the future it arrives. This adjustment reflects opportunity cost, risk, and inflation.

If we assume a discount rate of, say, 10%, the DCF would look like this:

DCF=50,000(1+0.10)1+50,000(1+0.10)2+β‹―+50,000(1+0.10)5\text{DCF} = \frac{50{,}000}{(1 + 0.10)^1} + \frac{50{,}000}{(1 + 0.10)^2} + \cdots + \frac{50{,}000}{(1 + 0.10)^5}

You'll see that each year's cash flow is worth less in today's dollars. The total DCF will be less than $250,000.

This technique allows you to compare investments or business opportunities that may have the same total return but very different timing profiles.

Think of it like this: would you rather get $50,000 now, or in five years? Most people choose "now"β€”because they could invest, use, or save it today. DCF helps capture that preference numerically.

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SectionΒ 2. ChapterΒ 2

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bookDCF Money Printing Machine Example

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Imagine a business (the machine) that produces predictable cash flows: $50,000 per year for five years. A naΓ―ve approach might value the machine at $250,000 ($50K Γ— 5). But this ignores a foundational principle in finance: money today is more valuable than money tomorrow.

The time value of money (TVM) tells us that each future $50,000 payment must be adjusted (discounted) based on how far in the future it arrives. This adjustment reflects opportunity cost, risk, and inflation.

If we assume a discount rate of, say, 10%, the DCF would look like this:

DCF=50,000(1+0.10)1+50,000(1+0.10)2+β‹―+50,000(1+0.10)5\text{DCF} = \frac{50{,}000}{(1 + 0.10)^1} + \frac{50{,}000}{(1 + 0.10)^2} + \cdots + \frac{50{,}000}{(1 + 0.10)^5}

You'll see that each year's cash flow is worth less in today's dollars. The total DCF will be less than $250,000.

This technique allows you to compare investments or business opportunities that may have the same total return but very different timing profiles.

Think of it like this: would you rather get $50,000 now, or in five years? Most people choose "now"β€”because they could invest, use, or save it today. DCF helps capture that preference numerically.

Everything was clear?

How can we improve it?

Thanks for your feedback!

SectionΒ 2. ChapterΒ 2
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