Probability Theory Basics

Probability Theory Basics

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1. Basic Concepts of Probability Theory

We will start our way of learning probability theory by considering some basic definitions and rules: what is a stochastic experiment and random event, what is independence and incompatibility of events in the context of probability theory, what is the probability and how can we calculate probabilities of different elementary events.

Stochastic Experiment and Random Event

Probability and It's Properties

Geometrical Probability

Challenge: Solving the Task Using Geometric Probability

Independence and Incompatibility of Random Events

Conditional Probability

2. Probability of Complex Events

In real-life tasks, we often have to deal with complex relationships and, as a result, calculate probabilities of several events or events that depend on each other. Let's consider how we can do this using probability theory.

Inclusion-Exclusion Principle

Challenge: Solving the Task Using Inclusion-Exclusion Principle

The Multiplication Rule of Probability

Law of Total Probability

Challenge: Solving the Task Using Bayes' Theorem

3. Commonly Used Discrete Distributions

To solve many real problems in probability theory, special models have been created that describe a particular situation. Let's consider some of the most used models that can be used to describe some discrete results of stochastic experiments.

Binomial Distribution

Challenge: Solving Task Using Binomial Distribution

Multinomial Distribution

Geometric Distribution

Poisson Distribution

Challenge: Solving Task Using Poisson Distribution

4. Commonly Used Continuous Distributions

What if the result of a stochastic experiment cannot be described by a discrete value? For this, models that work with continuous values are used. Consider the most popular of these models.

Continuous Uniform Distribution

Exponential Distribution

Challenge: Solving Task Using Exponential Distribution

Gaussian Distribution

Challenge: Solving Task Using Gaussian Distribution

5. Covariance and Correlation

Often we are faced with the task of checking the dependence of the results of different stochastic experiments on each other. Moreover, it is necessary not only to assess the presence of dependencies but also to somehow quantify the degree of dependencies. To solve these problems, we can use covariance and correlation.

What is Covariance?

What is Correlation?

Challenge: Solving the Task Using Correlation

Course Content

Probability Theory Basics

Probability Theory Basics

1. Basic Concepts of Probability Theory

Stochastic Experiment and Random Event Probability and It's Properties Geometrical Probability Challenge: Solving the Task Using Geometric Probability Independence and Incompatibility of Random Events Conditional Probability

2. Probability of Complex Events

Inclusion-Exclusion Principle Challenge: Solving the Task Using Inclusion-Exclusion Principle The Multiplication Rule of Probability Law of Total Probability Bayes' Theorem Challenge: Solving the Task Using Bayes' Theorem

3. Commonly Used Discrete Distributions

Binomial Distribution Challenge: Solving Task Using Binomial Distribution Multinomial Distribution Geometric Distribution Poisson Distribution Challenge: Solving Task Using Poisson Distribution

4. Commonly Used Continuous Distributions

Continuous Uniform Distribution Exponential Distribution Challenge: Solving Task Using Exponential Distribution Gaussian Distribution Challenge: Solving Task Using Gaussian Distribution

5. Covariance and Correlation

What is Covariance?What is Correlation?Challenge: Solving the Task Using Correlation

Independence and Incompatibility of Random Events

In probability theory, independence and incompatibility are concepts related to the relationship between random events.

Independence: Two events are considered independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other event. In other words, knowing whether one event happens provides no information about the likelihood of the other event happening.
Events A and B are independent if P(A intersection B) = P(A)*P(B);
Incompatibility: Two events are incompatible if they cannot occur simultaneously. If the occurrence of one event excludes the possibility of the other event happening, they are considered incompatible. For example, flipping a coin and getting heads and tails simultaneously is incompatible since the coin can only show one side at a time.
Events A and B are incompatible if P(A intersection B) = 0.

Examples of independent and incompatible events:

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Section 1. Chapter 5

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